Presentation Files

San Francisco File: Forecasting Default in the Face of Uncertainty

Abstract We consider a structural model of default risk that incorporates the short-term uncertainty inherent in default events. It is based on the assumption of incomplete information: We take as a premise that bond investors are not certain about the true level of firm value that will trigger default.

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San Francisco File: How good is your information?

Fraud, opaque accounting practices and incomplete data are unavoidable. But are they factored into a credit risk forecast? An emerging class of models does the job by assuming incomplete information. Barra’s Lisa Goldberg explains

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